Analysis of Domestic LNG Price Trend from January 19 to January 23, 2026
From January 19 to January 23, 2026, the domestic LNG market price broke away from the previous continuous downward trend and ushered in a phased upward movement. The core driving logic is "rigid demand boost + cost support + tight supply", and the simultaneous improvement of both supply and demand sides drove the price up. The specific analysis is as follows:
I. Core Drivers: Superposition of Multiple Positive Factors, Continuous Improvement of Supply-Demand Pattern
Cold Air Catalysis, Explosion of Urban Gas Rigid Demand
This week, China experienced a large-scale severe cold wave, with a significant drop in temperature and a sharp rise in heating demand. Urban gas users entered a centralized inventory replenishment cycle. Coupled with the surge in gas consumption for pipeline peak shaving, it directly drove the growth of LNG demand. According to statistics, the daily gas supply of the main pipeline network of the National Pipe Network once exceeded 1.1 billion cubic meters, a record high, and the rigid demand from the urban gas sector became the core support for the price rise.
Pre-holiday Rush, Industrial Demand Supplementary Support
As the Spring Festival approached, factories in major industrial agglomerations such as East China and South China increased their production intensity to complete production tasks as scheduled, and the industrial gas demand rose synchronously. It formed a dual pull together with the urban gas demand, further boosting the market purchasing enthusiasm and expanding the demand support.
Tight Supply, Strong Confidence for Upstream Price Maintenance
On the one hand, the cold wave led to the closure of roads in some northern producing areas, hindering the cross-regional transportation of LNG, reducing the efficiency of resource circulation, and forming a tight supply pattern in some regions; on the other hand, the inventory of domestic LNG plants continued to decline, with the weekly inventory significantly lower than the beginning of the month. The upstream plants had smooth shipments and no inventory pressure, so they had sufficient confidence to raise prices and took the opportunity to drive the price up.
II. Market Differentiation: Land Gas Generally Rises, Marine Gas Follows Up Driven by Costs
Domestic Gas (Land Gas): Overall Upward, Regional Growth Differentiation
Driven by rigid demand and tight supply, the LNG outbound price in coastal areas of China rebounded collectively for the first time after nine consecutive weeks of decline. As of January 23, the national LNG outbound price recorded 4,184 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 4.65%. From a regional perspective, the core consumer areas in East China and South China had stronger demand and relatively higher price increases, with some regions' quotations exceeding 4,200 yuan per ton; although the local quotations in northern producing areas rose due to transportation restrictions, the overall increase was slightly lower than that in the core consumer areas in the south, showing a pattern of "strong south, stable north, and overall upward".
Imported Gas (Marine Gas): Cost Transmission, Synchronous Follow-up Rise
In the international market, affected by the global cold wave, major international natural gas prices such as the US Henry Hub and European TTF rebounded sharply. The weekly ring-to-ring increase of Northeast Asian spot LNG CIF price was 9.64%, and the continuous rise of international spot prices provided strong cost support for domestic marine gas. Based on the cost pressure, domestic LNG receiving terminals also raised their shipping prices synchronously in combination with their own shipping status and market demand. The single-week increase of some receiving terminals reached 300 yuan per ton, forming a "simultaneous rise linkage" pattern with domestic gas, further consolidating the upward trend of the domestic LNG market.
III. Overall Summary and Future Outlook
The upward trend of domestic LNG prices this week was the result of the combined effect of three factors: weather-driven rigid demand, pre-holiday demand, and cost support. The supply-demand pattern shifted from loose in the early stage to tight, and the low upstream inventory and high downstream demand formed a virtuous cycle, driving the price out of the shadow of continuous decline and ushering in a phased recovery.
Looking ahead, the price trend needs to focus on three core variables: first, the duration of the cold air; if the temperature rises subsequently, the heating demand may weaken rapidly, which may reduce the price support; second, the sustainability of downstream demand; as the Spring Festival approaches, the industrial sector may gradually reduce production, and the demand momentum may weaken; third, the fluctuation of international gas prices; if the international spot price pulls back, it may be transmitted to domestic marine gas, affecting the cost support. On the whole, the short-term market may maintain high volatility, with limited room for sharp increase, and we need to be alert to the correction risk brought by the ebb of demand.