Analysis of Domestic LNG Price Trend from January 12 to January 16, 2026

From January 12 to January 16, 2026, the domestic LNG market price showed a volatile trend of "rising first and then falling". The core logic of this week's price fluctuation evolved around "online auction-driven - sentiment-boosted - demand-saturated - price correction". Combined with the market reality, industry data and supply-demand pattern of this week, the specific English analysis is as follows:

In the early stage of this week, the domestic LNG price ushered in a phased rise, which was mainly driven by the joint promotion of two key factors. On the one hand, the extended LNG online auction concluded with high prices. This market signal directly reflected the scarcity of LNG resources in the short term and market recognition, laying the foundation for price increases and providing support for upstream liquid plants to maintain high prices; on the other hand, the downstream market generally had a typical trading psychology of "buying up but not buying down". Coupled with the background that China was in the peak heating season in January and some urban gas and industrial users had low inventory, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was greatly increased, and all parties accelerated the inventory replenishment rhythm, further driving the market trading atmosphere to heat up. On the upstream supply side, liquid plants followed the market trend and raised shipping prices. The superposition of these two factors directly promoted the continuous rise of domestic LNG market prices, with a clear upward trend in the early stage.

In the later stage of this week, the market supply-demand pattern reversed significantly, and the price turned from rising to falling. The core driving force came from changes in the demand side and the release of upstream inventory pressure. As LNG prices continued to climb to a phased high level, the cost pressure on downstream end users increased significantly, their willingness to accept high-price goods continued to weaken, and their purchasing behavior gradually became rational; at the same time, after the early concentrated purchasing, the replenishment needs of most downstream users had been gradually met, the market purchasing momentum slowed down significantly, the trading atmosphere faded accordingly, the shipping rhythm of upstream liquid plants was hindered, and inventory began to accumulate gradually. To alleviate inventory pressure and accelerate the inventory deinventory rhythm, upstream liquid plants in many regions successively adopted price reduction and promotion strategies to stimulate shipments through profit concessions, which also became the core driving factor for the price decline in the later stage.

In terms of the marine gas market, the trend this week was different from the "rising first and then falling" fluctuation characteristics of domestic gas, showing a relatively flexible operation trend. Domestic LNG receiving terminals did not blindly follow the fluctuation of land gas prices, but mainly adjusted the shipping prices flexibly according to their own shipping status, inventory level and market acceptance, seeking a balance between inventory deinventory and profit preservation. Combined with the performance of the international market this week, although the weekly ring-to-ring increase of Northeast Asian spot LNG CIF price was 9.01%, China's demand for spot LNG imports was not high, and the impact of international spot prices on the domestic marine gas market was limited. Therefore, the pricing of receiving terminals focused more on their own operation, forming a differentiated operation pattern from the domestic gas market.

On the whole, the core of this week's domestic LNG price fluctuation was the game between market sentiment, online auction signals and supply-demand balance: the high-price transaction of the extended online auction and the downstream psychology of "buying up but not buying down" jointly drove the price rise in the early stage, while the saturation of downstream demand, increased cost pressure and upstream inventory accumulation promoted the price decline in the later stage. From the perspective of the industry background, although the domestic LNG outbound price showed an overall trend of rising first and then falling this week, it was still in a continuous downward cycle since the heating season. At the same time, the inverted price difference between domestic and foreign gas prices widened. The future price trend still needs to focus on the subsequent transaction results of the extended online auction, the sustainability of downstream heating demand and the direction of price adjustment of receiving terminals, while taking into account the long-term market impact brought by the expected global LNG capacity release.