Analysis of Domestic LNG Price Trend from January 26 to January 30, 2026

From January 26 to January 30, 2026, the domestic LNG market price showed a trend of "rising first and then partial consolidation", with the core logic evolving around "favorable factors driving up prices - high prices suppressing demand - partial differentiation and consolidation". Combined with the market reality and industry data this week, the specific analysis is as follows: During the week, a cold wave hit (it is expected that cold air will sweep many parts of northern China from January 26 to 30, with a local temperature drop of more than 14℃), coupled with the continuous rise in international LNG spot prices, the downstream market's replenishment demand increased significantly. Driven by this, industrial, urban gas and other end users accelerated their replenishment rhythm out of expectations of continued price increases and tight supply in the later period, driving the market trading atmosphere to heat up. Upstream liquid plants took the opportunity to increase shipping prices, and quotations of some regional liquid plants increased significantly, which was consistent with the initial trend of rising both volume and price in the domestic LNG market this week.

However, as LNG prices remained at a high level, the willingness of end users to receive goods gradually decreased. Behind this phenomenon was the cost consideration of downstream users - when LNG prices climbed to a high level, industrial users mostly turned to alternative energy sources such as pipeline gas, and vehicle LNG users also reduced purchases because the gas price was close to the diesel price and the economy disappeared, resulting in weakened support from the demand side. In this situation, the domestic gas price did not continue to rise unilaterally, but showed a volatile consolidation trend of both rises and falls in some regions: prices of some liquid plants close to the consumer end with low inventory remained firm, while those far from the consumer area with obvious inventory pressure adjusted slightly, forming a regional differentiation pattern. In terms of the marine gas market, affected by the continuous rise in international spot prices and tense international geopolitical situation (fluctuations in Qatar's gas supply and increased risk of US-Israel-Iran conflict), domestic receiving terminals generally had a reluctance to sell, and successively raised shipping prices. Quotations of some receiving terminals even exceeded 6,000 yuan per ton, forming a sharp contrast with the partial consolidation trend of domestic gas, highlighting the current market's structural characteristics of "firm marine gas and differentiated land gas". On the whole, the core of this week's price fluctuation was the game between supply and demand and costs. The rise in international prices provided cost support, the cold wave drove short-term replenishment demand, but high prices suppressed end demand, eventually leading the market to enter a stage of partial consolidation. The future trend still needs to pay attention to the duration of the cold wave's impact, fluctuations in international gas prices and the rhythm of downstream demand recovery.