Analysis of China Domestic LNG Market Price Trend
April 20 – 24, 2026
The domestic LNG market moved higher in volatile fashion and strengthened sharply this week, featuring a market pattern of steady rises in domestic liquefied gas prices, a turnaround of imported marine LNG from weakness to strength, and synchronized upward momentum across domestic and imported sources. The rally was driven by the combined effect of firm cost support, continuous supply contraction, and rising bullish market sentiment. Supported by rigid downstream demand and active inventory restocking, the market staged a strong uptrend even in the traditional low-demand off-season.
1. Price Movement Trend: Consolidation at the Start, Accelerated Gains Mid-to-Late Week
Early week (Monday–Tuesday)
The market maintained a weak supply-demand balance. Downstream buyers mainly purchased based on rigid actual demand with a slow procurement pace. Upstream LNG plants and terminals adjusted prices flexibly according to their own inventory and sales conditions, leading to mixed gains and losses with mild fluctuations. The average ex-plant price of domestic LNG stayed within the range of 5,100–5,200 CNY/ton. Quotations at marine LNG terminals were generally soft, with some terminals offering slight discounts to clear cargoes.
Mid-to-late week (Wednesday–Friday)
Market sentiment turned notably bullish, and prices kept climbing continuously. As of April 27, out of 133 domestic LNG plants nationwide, 74 were under maintenance or shut down, pushing the overall operating rate down to only 44%. The national average price of LNG plants rose to 5,967 CNY/ton, surging by more than 700 CNY/ton week-on-week. The average price of 19 LNG terminals reached 5,891 CNY/ton with smooth sales performance. Terminal prices trended steadily higher, moving in tandem with domestic LNG prices.
2. Analysis of Core Driving Factors
2.1 Domestic LNG: Dual Drive of Cost and Supply with Strong Price Holding and Hiking Willingness
Cost-side rigid increase consolidates the price bottom
In the second half of April, PetroChina’s feedgas auctions directly supplied to LNG plants were fully transacted with no unsold lots. The average transaction price stood at 3.11–3.30 CNY/cubic meter, up 0.21–0.3 CNY/cubic meter from the first half of the month. The converted production cost of LNG plants reached 5,200–5,600 CNY/ton, a rise of around 300 CNY/ton compared with March.
The sharp cost increase left LNG plants with little room for price cuts, and upstream producers showed strong willingness to hold firm on prices, becoming the core driver of the upward trend. Most LNG plants raised their ex-plant prices above 5,000 CNY/ton and kept following the market uptrend.
Continuous supply contraction tightens spot availability
Concentrated maintenance dragged down the operating rate of LNG plants this week. Major producing regions including Northwest China, Inner Mongolia and Southwest China saw widespread plant maintenance. In addition, some LNG plants suspended external sales after undertaking toll processing business, resulting in a sharp drop in domestic LNG circulation.
Upstream LNG plants generally maintained low inventory levels with little sales pressure, further underpinning proactive price hikes and supply withholding.
Demand side: Off-season rigid demand underpins the market; bullish buying sentiment fuels gains
April is the traditional off-season for gas consumption. Industrial users and city gas companies mainly made purchases to meet rigid demand. However, rising costs and tight supply triggered strong market bullish expectations. Midstream and downstream traders and end-users took the initiative to replenish inventories and stock up for further price increases, greatly boosting trading activity. A positive cycle took shape:
Cost rise → Quotation hike → Follow-up procurement → Further price increase, accelerating the market uptrend.
2.2 Marine LNG Market: Turning from Weakness to Strength and Moving in Line with Domestic LNG
In the early part of the week, marine LNG faced downward pressure due to high import costs and insufficient downstream acceptance. Some terminals held high inventory with slow sales, keeping prices subdued.
International LNG spot prices (JKM) remained elevated. In April, the landed cost of Northeast Asian LNG spots was equivalent to about 6,293 CNY/ton, far higher than domestic LNG costs. Terminals had to maintain high quotations passively, leading to sluggish downstream purchasing interest.
Mid-to-late week, the continuous climb of domestic LNG prices improved the cost performance of marine LNG. Meanwhile, fewer vessel arrivals and inventory destocking at some terminals smoothed sales turnover. Terminals became more willing to hold prices firm, pushing quotations steadily higher and aligning with the domestic market. Only a few terminals with high inventories offered modest concessions, shifting the overall market from divergent weakness to synchronized gains.
3. Overall Market Logic and Outlook
3.1 Core Market Logic
The current market is essentially a game between strong support from costs and supply and weak demand absorption in the off-season:
Feedgas auction prices and international gas prices form a solid price floor, ruling out sharp declines.
Low operating rates and concentrated maintenance shrink supply, strengthening upward price momentum and tightening spot resources.
Off-season rigid demand plus inventory restocking provides market support, yet it cannot drive skyrocketing prices, resulting in a pattern of volatile and steady gains.
3.2 Short-term Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)
Domestic LNG: Feedgas costs will stay elevated, and LNG plant operating rates are unlikely to rebound quickly. Tight supply will persist, keeping prices more likely to rise than fall. Prices are expected to stay above 5,800 CNY/ton, with some major producing regions likely to break 6,000 CNY/ton.
Marine LNG: Prices will continue to fluctuate in line with domestic LNG trends and terminal inventory levels. Improving sales turnover will keep marine LNG prices steady and firm, narrowing the price gap with domestic LNG gradually.
Key variables: Feedgas auction results in early May, the pace of LNG plant maintenance and resumption, downstream inventory restocking intensity, and international geopolitical situations will directly shape subsequent price movements.
3.3 Risk Reminders
Persistent sluggish terminal demand and inventory accumulation at LNG plants may trigger partial minor price corrections. Sharp fluctuations in international gas prices and unexpected changes in feedgas auction prices will intensify market volatility.