From April 13 to 17, 2026, China’s domestic LNG market showed a structural trend: domestic liquefied gas prices trended upward with volatility, while imported marine LNG prices weakened with divergence. This pattern was fundamentally the result of a market game between rising rigid costs & shrinking supply and slack terminal demand. The analysis is elaborated from three perspectives: core driving factors, market divergence, and market outlook.
I. Domestic LNG: Driven by Both Cost and Supply, Prices Broke Through 5,000 Yuan Per Ton
Cost Side: Rising bidding price of feedgas directly lifted the production cost floor
In the second half of April, the average transaction price of PetroChina’s direct-supplied feedgas to LNG plants stood at 3.11–3.30 CNY/cubic meter, up 0.21–0.3 CNY/cubic meter from the first half of the month. The converted production cost of LNG plants reached 5,200–5,600 CNY/ton, an increase of about 300 CNY/ton compared with March.The rigid rise in costs left LNG plants no room for price cuts, and their willingness to hold firm on prices became the core driving force for the market upturn. Most liquid factories consequently raised their ex-plant prices above 5,000 CNY/ton.
Supply Side: Low operating rate & concentrated maintenance tightened spot supply
As of April 27, among 133 domestic LNG plants nationwide, 74 were under maintenance or shut down, with the overall operating rate standing at only 44%.Liquid plants in major producing regions including Northwest China, Inner Mongolia and Southwest China underwent concentrated maintenance. In addition, some plants suspended external sales after undertaking toll processing business. The circulation volume of domestic LNG shrank and upstream inventories remained low, further supporting price hikes at liquid plants.
Demand Side: Rigid off-season demand underpinned the market, while buying-on-rally sentiment boosted transactions
April falls in the traditional gas consumption off-season, with industrial users and urban gas companies mainly purchasing for rigid demand. Nevertheless, rising costs triggered market bullish expectations. Midstream and downstream enterprises took the initiative to replenish inventories, lifting trading activity and forming a positive cycle: cost increase → quotation rise → follow-up procurement → further price increase.
II. Marine LNG Market: High import costs & sluggish demand put prices under downward pressure
Import costs remained at a high level, yet terminal market acceptance was insufficient.The international LNG spot price (JKM) kept climbing. In April, the landed cost of Northeast Asian LNG spots was equivalent to about 6,293 CNY/ton, far higher than the cost of domestic LNG. LNG terminals had to keep their supply prices high passively.However, downstream end-users showed low purchasing willingness due to the high price, only making small-volume rigid purchases, leaving high-priced LNG cargoes difficult to sell.
Mismatched supply and demand dragged prices downSome LNG terminals faced concentrated vessel arrivals and inventory accumulation. To speed up destocking and capital recovery, they had to cut prices to attract procurement, forming a divergent trend against rising domestic LNG prices. Only a few terminals with fewer vessel arrivals and low inventories saw mild price increases following the domestic market.
III. Overall Market Logic and Outlook
Core market contradiction
The current market is dominated by the conflict between strong support from costs and supply and weak absorption by terminal demand.Costs (feedgas prices + international gas prices) set the bottom of market prices, shrinking supply reinforced upward momentum, while sluggish off-season demand limited the upside, resulting in a volatile upward trend.
Short-term trend
Supported by persistently high feedgas costs and the slow recovery of LNG plant operating rates, domestic LNG prices are prone to rise rather than fall, and are likely to stay above 5,000 CNY/ton. Marine LNG prices will continue to fluctuate in line with domestic LNG prices and terminal inventory levels, maintaining a weak overall performance.
Risk factors
Sustained sluggish terminal demand and inventory build-up at LNG plants may trigger partial price corrections. International geopolitical situations and feedgas bidding results will remain key variables affecting subsequent market movements.