February 24-27, 2026: LNG Price Rebound - Key Time Nodes and Driving Events
After the 2026 Spring Festival, the domestic LNG price in China followed a typical seasonal logic of "first decline and then rebound". This week (early March), the price has entered the rebound and upward stage.
I. Price Trend and Core Data (as of March 5)
Weekly Average Price: The national weekly average transaction price of LNG ex-factory was 3,685.73 yuan/ton, an increase of 255.34 yuan/ton from the previous period, with a growth rate of 7.44%.
Rhythm: In the early post-holiday period (late February), LNG plants reduced prices to destock; prices have been rising for 8 consecutive days since February 26, with an accelerated rebound approaching the weekend.
Regions: The northwest, north China and central China led the price increase, and the prices of receiving terminals were generally raised.
II. Complete Logical Chain of "First Decline and Then Rebound"
1. Decline Stage (After Spring Festival - Mid-Week): Price Reduction Driven by Inventory Pressure
Supply Backlog: During the Spring Festival holiday, due to highway restrictions and poor logistics, the inventory of LNG plants continued to accumulate, resulting in high inventory pressure.
Logistics Recovery: After the holiday, the traffic restrictions were lifted and transportation resumed. To quickly destock and recover funds, upstream enterprises took the initiative to reduce prices to promote sales.
Weak Demand: In the early stage of post-holiday resumption of work, industrial and vehicle demand had not yet fully recovered, leading tosluggish transactions.
2. Rebound Stage (Approaching Weekend): Supply-Demand Reversal + Cost Support
Demand Recovery: After the Lantern Festival, industrial, urban gas and vehicle demand recovered rapidly, and downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory increased.
Inventory Destocking: The inventory of LNG plants dropped rapidly from a high level to alow level, the motivation for price reduction disappeared, and the willingness to maintain prices increased.
Cost Increase: The auction price of CNPC feed gas rose (3.52-3.81 yuan/cubic meter), providing cost support for prices.
International Transmission: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and supply disturbances in Qatar pushed up the cost of imported LNG, driving the domestic price to rise accordingly.
III. Core Characteristics of the Current Market (Early March)
Supply-Demand Pattern: Tight supply and recovering demand, the operating rate of LNG plants was only about 50%, and the supply of feed gas decreased.
Cost-Driven: The cost of domestic gas increased, and the price of imported LNG remained high, forming a simultaneous rise in domestic and imported gas.
Sentiment: Guided by the mentality of "buying up but not buying down", downstream inventory replenishment and speculative purchases increased, accelerating the price rise.
IV. Short-Term Outlook (Next Week)
It is expected that the upward trend will continue with an expanded growth rate, and the weekly average price may exceed 4,000 yuan/ton.
Drivers: Low inventory of LNG plants, high feed gas costs, persistent international geopolitical risks, and receiving terminals' willingness to maintain prices and be reluctant to sell.
Risks: High prices may restrain downstream demand, and a slowdown in the upward trend and differentiated adjustment may occur in some regions.